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GDP: Real GDP growth continued to slow during the fourth quarter of 2015, expanding 1.4% on an annualized basis. Economic growth for the entire year was equal to 2.4%, the same growth rate as 2014. One concerning trend from 2015 is a weakening in business spending. Fixed investment has been slowing and businesses are being cautious about adding to inventory. Personal consumption remains strong and accounted for nearly all of the growth during the fourth quarter.

The comments out of the Fed meeting last week were received by some as being surprisingly dovish, as the median dot in the Fed’s dot plot slipped to a year-end level of 0.75 – 1.00 percent. This implies only two 25 basis point rate increases by year-end, and represents a considerable decline from the previous dot plot which implied four 25 basis point rate increases.

U.S. Economy and Markets: Domestic equity markets were modestly down in February, as the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index^SM returned -0.05% and the S&P 500 Index returned -0.13%. Market volatility increased slightly in February, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) ending the month at 20.55, up from 20.20 at the end of January 2015.

Coming out of 2015 on the heels of the Fed’s first interest rate hike since the financial crisis, investors were pricing in a very high probability of several more interest rate hikes in 2016. The Fed’s guidance implied four rate hikes this year, and Fed Funds Futures implied a roughly 90% probability that the Fed would raise rates further by December of 2016.

SANTA MONICA, CA, FEBRUARY 19, 2016—The Wilshire Liquid Alternative Index^SM, which provides a representative baseline for how the broad liquid alternative investment category performs, returned -1.30% in January, meaningfully outperforming the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index by 146 basis points.

Written by Rob Noe and Josh Emanuel: Client interest in responsible investment strategies has increased notably over the past couple of years. And with it, the number of responsible investment products coming to market and managers claiming to incorporate environment, social and governance (ESG) factors into their investment processes has also grown.

U.S. Economy and Markets: Domestic equity markets were negative in January, as the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index^SM returned -5.46% and the S&P 500 Index returned -4.96%. Market volatility increased in January, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) ending the month at 20.20, up from 18.21 at the end of December.

Webinar Replay: “2015 Year in Review and 2016 Outlook” webinar, presented by Josh Emanuel, Wilshire Funds Management CIO, and hosted by Jeremy Heffernan, Wilshire Funds Management Vice President.

Our Reflections on 2015—Unrewarded Risk Some investors believe in the “January Indicator,” on the basis that January portends the performance of markets for the remainder of the year. This premise held true in 2015, which began with a rather tumultuous month, fueling a gradual increase in equity market volatility from 12.34% to 18.72% at the end of 2015.

Economic Highlights: Real GDP growth slowed during the third quarter of 2015, expanding 2.0% on an annualized basis. The U.S. economy continues to move forward, with economic growth equaling 2.1% for the past 12 months. The only point of weakness during the quarter was in business spending, which was down due to a substantial accumulation of inventory during the first half of the year.